hegemo 

The United States does not depend on oil imports for its own use. It has its own oil reserves. However, the oil that the USA has is light and medium crude, whereas most of the refinery facilities are set up for heavy crude oil. Why then does the USA want Venezuelan oil? Because they cannot, or don't want to, rely on Canadian heavy crude imports anymore.

We might carefully analyse the price of oil across the world during times of peace. We at Hegemo, think this is a blind alley. History has shown us that it is the country or force that can replace materiel faster than it is destroyed that eventually wins a war. History has also shown us that hitting infrastructure such as oil refineries and wells negatively impacts on a countries ability to fight a war.

Why would Trump not get congressional approval for seizing Venezuela? We know he is a maverick and we know he is keen to do what he thinks is right. Under the pretext of quashing drug imports and obvious destruction of Venezuelan drug-smuggling boats the world is given a false hand. Trump is preparing for war.

Venezuela is a BRICS country; a trading partner with both China and Russia, and India and Brazil. Attacking a BRICS country in such a way as we have seen can only result in negative reactions from Venezuela's trading partners. Venezuela has the largest heavy crude oil reserves in the world. It is expensive to get at and remove and expensive to refine. China could have helped Venezuela do it and probably wanted to, but they didn't. China buys oil from Russia. We know that China has a lot of interest in South America and Africa. They also have a keen interest in Taiwan. All this seems to be economic interest that fuels the reshaping of China's infrastructure, as we have seen by new dams and hydroelectric plants and the razing of towns and villages in favour of new cities. New cities means education for more people and we know that educating a population of more than a billion citizens means a lot of bright people will be thrown up and segued into the new China Order.

While Trump and Rubio spout being offended by a narco-terrorist they know that, that is not enough to cover for their occupation of Venezuela by proxy. 'She will do what we want.' when mentioning Delcy Rodriguez, the new President of Venezuela. 'We are prepared to put boots on the ground' and 'We are prepared for an even bigger attack.' There is more than economic intent here. We don't think Rodriguez will obviously comply. Boots will be on the ground and Rodriguez will capitulate. She can't do it today or tomorrow. However, she will be a target for the rest of her presidency. Russia is likely to get involved with elections, we suggest.

Trump may be saying 'We won't allow other countries to cheat us' and invading Venezuela may be presented as an example of intent to protect American interests, but it is not macro-economics that the USA is playing with. Trump may be trying to convince the USA public that he is trying to get money owed, back from Venezuela, but that is a notion he and and his team have tacked onto the high tariffs attempts to 'Make America Great Again'. That period lends itself nicely to being a precursor to the invasion of Venezuela. It was not planned that way, we suggest.

Talks with Putin and Zelenskyy are not going well. Analysts no doubt see the war continuing for a while and intelligence likely reveals that there is more to come. America will need to choose whose side they are on and they will choose themselves. Are they adequately geared up for a sustained war? Once upon a time, America could just blast other countries into non-existence. War has changed now, They will be long and they will be of attrition, not battles.

Why would America ignore International Law when International Law is largely ignored in times of war? Because they are at war, they just haven't admitted it yet. They are not at war with Venezuela as much as with Russia and China.They know they cannot successfully occupy Venezuela peacefully. They intend to use force to make sure they have access to oil in an area that is not their own country. We might be aware that there was mention that Maduro negotiated leaving Venezuela. If that is so, we might consider that he was about to be targeted by a different country, also after the oil. The repair of Venezuela's oil infrastructure is so expensive only a rich country would consider taking it on - China.

Analysts tell us that there has been a gradual eroding of an observance of International Law. Anyone can foresee a World War from just knowing that.